Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal: Make-or-Break UCL Clash in Dortmund on November 25
Nov, 26 2025
On Tuesday, November 25, 2025, Borussia Dortmund will host Villarreal at Signal Iduna Park in a do-or-die UEFA Champions League league phase match at 15:00 UTC. With just one point from four games, Villarreal sits near the bottom of the table—on the brink of European elimination. Dortmund, though not much better at 14th place with seven points, is fighting for survival in a competition where every goal, every point, could mean the difference between a knockout berth and humiliation. This isn’t just another fixture. It’s a lifeline.
Home Advantage vs European Struggles
Dortmund’s home record this season? W-D-W-D. Four matches, six points. Two wins, two draws. That’s 2.00 points per game at Signal Iduna Park—far better than their 1.33 away. They’ve scored 13 goals in the UCL so far, averaging over three per game in elite competition. But here’s the twist: they’ve conceded 11. Defense is fraying. The absence of Algerian international Ramy Bensebaini, sidelined with injury, leaves a gaping hole on the left flank. His absence isn’t just tactical—it’s psychological. He’s the glue in their backline.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have looked like a different team domestically. Third in La Liga, five wins in their last six matches, scoring goals with alarming ease. But in Europe? A ghost town. Two goals scored. Six conceded. A 1-0 loss to Tottenham after an own goal by Luiz Felipe Silva Ferreira (aka Luiz Junior). A 2-0 thrashing by Manchester City. A 1-0 defeat to Pafos—a team most fans couldn’t find on a map. Their Champions League campaign is a mess. Yet Marcelino Garcia Toral, their Spanish tactician, insists his squad is ready to turn things around.
Who’s Starting? The Lineups That Could Decide It
Villarreal’s projected XI reads like a Spanish talent showcase: Gerard Moreno leading the line, Dani Olmo pulling strings, and Thomas Partey anchoring midfield. Even their backups are dangerous—Fermin Lopez Moleiro, just 22, is one of La Liga’s most underrated playmakers. But can they replicate their domestic form on the road? Their away record in Europe is brutal: 33% win rate, conceding over three goals per game on average.
Dortmund’s lineup is more predictable. Niko Kovac, their Croatian manager, will rely on pace and power. The attack is electric—when it clicks. But the midfield has been disjointed since the departure of Jude Bellingham. Without Bensebaini, the fullbacks are exposed. And when Villarreal’s counterattacks come, they come fast.
Contradictory Predictions, One Truth
Experts can’t agree. FootballPredictions.com sees a 2-2 draw—both teams to score, over 2.5 goals. SportsMole picks a 2-1 Dortmund win, citing home advantage and attacking depth. Forebet.com thinks it’ll be tight—under 2.5 goals. APWin goes wild: Villarreal to win the first half. Why? Because their xG (expected goals) at home is 1.64, and they’ve scored in every single match this season. Even in Europe. Even when they’ve lost.
And then there’s the betting market. On Robinhood’s prediction platform, Dortmund is favored at 54¢ to win. A draw? 25¢. Villarreal? Just 23¢. That’s not just odds—it’s market skepticism. Fans are voting too: 86% on Soccer365.net predict a Dortmund win. Only 4% back Villarreal. But football doesn’t care about polls.
Why This Match Matters More Than the Table
Let’s be clear: this isn’t about points. It’s about momentum. Dortmund’s European identity is at stake. After years of being a UCL powerhouse, they’ve slipped into mediocrity. A loss here, combined with results elsewhere, could mean their Champions League campaign ends before Christmas. For Villarreal? It’s existential. Their 2025/26 season has been defined by contradiction: La Liga giants, UCL ghosts. A win here could revive their European soul. A loss? They’ll be written off as a one-season wonder.
The numbers tell a story. Villarreal’s away xGA (expected goals against) is 1.82. Dortmund’s home xG is 2.11. Both teams score in 100% of their matches. That’s not coincidence—it’s pattern. Expect goals. Expect chaos. Expect a late winner.
What Comes Next?
If Dortmund wins, they’ll leap into the top 10. A draw? They’ll still be in danger. A loss? They’ll need a miracle in their final two games. For Villarreal, a win would make them a dark horse. A draw? They’re still alive, barely. A loss? They’re out. No more chances. No more excuses.
The last time these two met? A draw. And that was two years ago. Since then, Dortmund have lost their rhythm. Villarreal have lost their confidence. But in football, past results mean nothing. Only what happens on the pitch matters.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this match affect Borussia Dortmund’s chances of reaching the knockout stage?
A win would push Dortmund into the top 10, keeping them in contention for the top eight that qualify for the round of 16. With only two matches left, they need at least four more points. A loss would make their path nearly impossible, requiring favorable results from other matches and a dramatic turnaround in their defensive discipline. Their current 13 goals scored is strong, but 11 conceded is unsustainable against elite opposition.
Why is Villarreal struggling in Europe but doing well in La Liga?
Villarreal’s domestic success comes from tactical discipline and exploiting weaker defenses, but the Champions League demands consistency against elite sides. Their two UCL goals came against Juventus and Pafos—neither are top-tier teams. In contrast, they’ve faced Manchester City, Tottenham, and Dortmund—all with higher possession, better pressing, and more clinical finishing. Their away form in Europe is a glaring weakness, with an average of 3.33 goals conceded per away game.
What role does Ramy Bensebaini’s injury play in Dortmund’s chances?
Bensebaini’s absence weakens Dortmund’s left-back position and reduces their ability to transition quickly from defense to attack. He’s not just a defender—he’s a key outlet for counterattacks, with 87% pass accuracy in final third passes last season. Without him, the burden falls on fullback Nico Schlotterbeck, who’s less experienced in high-stakes European games. This could be exploited by Villarreal’s wingers, especially Yeremi Pino.
Are the betting odds accurate, or is there value in backing Villarreal?
While Dortmund are favorites, Villarreal’s odds at 23¢ offer surprising value. They’ve scored in every single match this season—even when losing. Their xG away is 1.31, and Dortmund’s defense has conceded in all but one home game. If Villarreal scores early, they can sit back and counter. The market is undervaluing their resilience and overvaluing Dortmund’s offensive flair. A 2-1 or 1-1 draw is more likely than the odds suggest.
Could this match be affected by weather or pitch conditions?
The forecast for Dortmund on November 25 calls for light rain and temperatures around 7°C (45°F). Wet conditions favor teams with better ball retention and physicality—Villarreal’s style. Dortmund’s high-pressing game relies on quick passes, which could become erratic in the damp. If the pitch is heavy, expect fewer goals than predicted, but more long balls and set pieces—where Villarreal’s aerial threat (especially Gerard Moreno) could shine.
What’s the historical significance of this matchup?
This is only the second-ever meeting between the two clubs in European competition. The first, in 2023, ended 1-1 in Spain. Villarreal won the return leg 2-1 in Dortmund—meaning they’ve never lost to Dortmund in Europe. That psychological edge, however small, matters. For Dortmund, this is a chance to erase that memory. For Villarreal, it’s a chance to cement their reputation as European spoilers.